UConn vs Texas

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-12 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-12 09:55 AM EST

UConn vs Texas on 2025-12-12

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
UConn 72% / Texas 28%

💰 Money Distribution
UConn 58% / Texas 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened at UConn -15, moved to -16.5 despite heavy public action on the favorite, indicating some sharp money on Texas.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Texas +16.5; reverse line movement against the public suggests value on the underdog, supported by Texas’s solid road form and UConn’s recent close games.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UConn | 84.50% |
| Win % for Texas | 15.50% |
| Spread Cover % for UConn | 58.20% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55.30% / Under: 44.70% |
| Average Total Points | 145.20 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [8.5, 32.1] |

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets
💰 Best Bet #1 [UConn / Spread / -16.5 at -110 / 62% / UConn’s elite adjusted efficiency (120+ off rating) and home dominance give them a strong edge to cover, despite line movement.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams play at a high tempo (UConn 75 poss/g, Texas 72), with recent games averaging 155 combined points; defenses allow 1.05+ PPP to opponents.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [UConn / Moneyline / -1800 / 85% / UConn’s 9-1 record and superior metrics (top-5 KenPom) make them overwhelming favorites at home against a 7-3 Texas squad.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jaylin Stewart / Over Points / 18.5 at -115 / 72% / Stewart’s 22.3 PPG average in last 5 games, with Texas allowing 25+ to guards; high usage (28%) in fast-paced matchups favors the over.
Player Prop #2: Dillon Mitchell / Over Rebounds / 8.5 at -110 / 68% / Mitchell grabs 9.2 RPG recently, exploiting UConn’s average defensive rebounding (68%); Texas’s interior focus boosts his opportunities.
Player Prop #3: Tristen Newton / Over Assists / 5.5 at -112 / 70% / Newton’s 6.8 APG in home games, against Texas’s turnover-prone defense (18% TO rate); playmaking role in UConn’s motion offense supports exceeding the line.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors UConn, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement point to sharp action on Texas, creating value on the underdog cover without invalidating UConn’s overall win probability. Follow the math on the spread fade while aligning with the favorite on moneyline due to strong home metrics. The game projects as high-scoring, with combined offensive efficiencies suggesting the total clears based on pace and recent trends exceeding defensive allowances.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Texas +16.5 — mathematical probability favors the cover with positive EV from RLM and Texas’s resilience in non-conference play.

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