UL Monroe Warhawks vs Old Dominion Monarchs

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-01 03:30 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-11-01 12:41 PM EDT

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Old Dominion Monarchs / Spread / -16.5 at -110 / 55% / Old Dominion’s superior SP+ rating and explosive play rate give them a strong edge to cover, supported by simulation showing 51.88% cover probability against a weak UL Monroe defense allowing high yards per play.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 55.5 at -105 / 52% / Both teams’ recent trends show moderate scoring with Old Dominion’s efficient offense and UL Monroe’s turnover issues pushing totals higher, aligning with 51.23% over probability in simulations based on tempo and red-zone efficiency.

💰 Best Bet #3 Old Dominion Monarchs / Moneyline / -800 / 95% / Dominant win probability of 94.77% from Monte Carlo runs, factoring in home-field adjustments and UL Monroe’s poor success rate, creates clear positive EV against implied odds.

🏈 Matchup: Old Dominion Monarchs at UL Monroe Warhawks on 2025-11-01

Game Times

• ET: 3:30 PM
• CT: 2:30 PM
• MT: 1:30 PM
• PT: 12:30 PM
• AKT: 11:30 AM
• HST: 9:30 AM

💸 Public Bets

Old Dominion 78% / UL Monroe 22%

💰 Money Distribution

Old Dominion 68% / UL Monroe 32%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

The spread opened at -15.5 and has ticked up to -16.5/-17 across books like FanDuel and DraftKings, with minimal movement despite heavy public action on the favorite; total steady at 55-55.5 with slight juice shift toward under.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Old Dominion spread, driven by model’s 94.77% win probability exceeding implied odds and simulation cover rate, while contextual factors like UL Monroe’s havoc rate and travel fatigue add to the edge without sharp resistance.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UL Monroe Warhawks | 5.23% |
| Win % for Old Dominion Monarchs | 94.77% |
| Spread Cover % for UL Monroe Warhawks | 48.12% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51.23% / Under: 48.77% |
| Average Total Points | 55.50 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.2, 34.8] |

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Colton Joseph / Over Passing Yards / 250.5 at -110 / 72% / Joseph’s CPOE and success rate against similar defenses project 269 yards on average, with UL Monroe’s secondary allowing 280+ passing yards in recent games due to poor coverage metrics.
• Player Prop #2: Tre Brown / Over Receiving Yards / 65.5 at -115 / 68% / Brown’s 69-yard projection from simulations aligns with his usage rate and Old Dominion’s pass-heavy scheme, exploiting UL Monroe’s 40% missed tackle rate on receivers.
• Player Prop #3: Braylon McReynolds / Under Rushing Yards / 75.5 at -105 / 65% / McReynolds faces a stout Old Dominion front seven with high havoc rate, limiting explosive runs; defensive EPA per rush suggests underperformance in this matchup based on recent form.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Old Dominion, aligning with money distribution and line stability, indicating no sharp contrarian action—following the favorite is optimal given the mathematical edge from superior metrics like yards per play and turnover margin. No major injuries reported for either side, with Old Dominion’s rest advantage bolstering their efficiency. Overall game outlook points to moderate scoring, with Old Dominion’s offense driving points but UL Monroe’s defense capping explosive totals below extreme highs.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public on Old Dominion — the 94.77% simulated win rate and positive EV on the spread confirm the favorite’s dominance without overvaluation risks.

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