UNLV vs Boise State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-13 11:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-13 11:28 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Boise State / Spread / -3 at -110 / 55% / Boise State’s stronger recent form and defensive efficiency give them the edge to cover on the road, despite UNLV’s home advantage; simulation shows 52% cover rate after adjustments.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams rank below average in pace and offensive efficiency this season, with UNLV allowing low points at home and Boise struggling offensively lately, pointing to a grind-it-out game under the total.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Boise State / Moneyline / -150 / 58% / Boise holds a clear win probability edge based on adjusted efficiency metrics and UNLV’s two-game skid, making the Broncos the value play straight up.]

🏀 Matchup: UNLV vs Boise State on 2026-01-13

Game Times

ET: 11:00 PM
CT: 10:00 PM
MT: 9:00 PM
PT: 8:00 PM
AKT: 7:00 PM
HST: 5:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[55% UNLV / 45% Boise State]

💰 Money Distribution

[40% UNLV / 60% Boise State]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Boise State -2.5 but moved to -3 amid sharp action on the Broncos, despite public leaning toward home underdog UNLV, indicating professional money pushing the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Boise State spread] — Estimated true probability exceeds implied odds by 3%, supported by Boise’s superior adjusted defensive rating (95.2 vs UNLV’s 102.1) and recent head-to-head trends this season.

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UNLV | 42% |
| Win % for Boise State | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for UNLV (+3) | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47% / Under: 53% |
| Average Total Points | 140.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-6.5, +4.2] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors UNLV as the home underdog amid their push to end a losing streak, but sharp money distribution and reverse line movement toward Boise State suggest professionals see value in the Broncos’ defensive metrics and road resilience. Following the money on Boise aligns with mathematical edges from efficiency ratings and simulation outputs, rather than fading the public here. Overall game scoring outlook leans low, with both offenses hampered by turnovers and poor shooting percentages against conference defenses this season.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Boise State] — Boise’s higher win probability and EV-positive metrics make them the optimal side despite public home bias.

Highlights unavailable.