UNLV vs New Mexico

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-27 11:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-27 07:58 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 New Mexico / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Simulation shows 58% cover rate with home efficiency edge and recent defensive form holding opponents under avg.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 143.5 at -110 / 52% / Combined avg total 144.2 exceeds line, driven by UNLV’s pace (69.5) and both teams’ offensive ratings above 105 in current season metrics.

💰 Best Bet #3 New Mexico / Moneyline / -200 / 62% / 62% win probability from 10k sims, bolstered by adjO 107.2 vs UNLV’s D 103.5 plus home-field +3.5 pts.

UNLV vs New Mexico on 2026-01-27

Game Times
ET: 11:00 PM
CT: 10:00 PM
MT: 9:00 PM
PT: 8:00 PM
AKT: 7:00 PM
HST: 5:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
New Mexico 68% / UNLV 32%

💰 Money Distribution
New Mexico 62% / UNLV 38%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened New Mexico -3.5, moved to -4.5 amid balanced action but sharp indicators on home side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on New Mexico spread; sim probs exceed implied odds (52.4% breakeven), supported by RLM and home splits.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure from data sources.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UNLV | 34.2% |
| Win % for New Mexico | 62.5% |
| Spread Cover % for New Mexico (-4.5) | 58.0% |
| Spread Cover % for UNLV (+4.5) | 39.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.1% / Under: 47.9% |
| Average Total Points | 144.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.1, 20.3] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on New Mexico, as line movement confirms professional support despite public majority. Follow the home team offers optimal EV given sim convergence and efficiency edges. Game projects moderately high-scoring with avg total over line based on tempo and offensive metrics.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New Mexico — sim and market data confirm 62% win probability.

Highlights unavailable.