UT Arlington vs Stephen F. Austin

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-29 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 10:30 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 UT Arlington / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 56% / Home team shows stronger recent form with wins over Weber State and Evansville; KenPom efficiency edges support covering small spread despite early season volatility.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 148.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams play moderate tempo (68-72 possessions); combined offensive efficiencies project 152 points average, recent games trending higher scoring.

💰 Best Bet #3 UT Arlington / Moneyline / -120 / 58% / Home advantage and better adjusted ratings (per KenPom previews) give edge over SFA’s road struggles.

UT Arlington vs Stephen F. Austin on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
UT Arlington 62% / Stephen F. Austin 38%

💰 Money Distribution
UT Arlington 68% / Stephen F. Austin 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened UT Arlington -1, moved to -1.5 on home money despite public lean; slight sharp action on favorite per Action Network indicators.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on UT Arlington spread; public on home but money concentration and RLM confirm value without overreaction.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UT Arlington | 57% |
| Win % for Stephen F. Austin | 43% |
| Spread Cover % for UT Arlington (-1.5) | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 53% / Under: 47% |
| Average Total Points | 151.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, +10.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money align on UT Arlington, supported by home form and efficiency metrics; no strong fade opportunity as RLM backs the favorite. Game projects moderately high-scoring with both offenses efficient against average defenses early in season. Follow home side for optimal EV.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with UT Arlington — math and market convergence point to home win probability.

Highlights unavailable.