Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-30 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 10:02 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Houston Rockets -12.5 at -108 / 58% Confidence / Rockets boast a 12-4 record against Jazz’s 6-12, with simulation showing 56% cover rate; injuries deplete both but Houston’s form and road strength provide edge despite heavy money on Jazz.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under 234.5 at -110 / 55% Confidence / Simulated average total of 228.4 falls below line, supported by Rockets’ defensive rating and both teams’ recent lower-scoring trends amid key absences like Kessler and Eason.

💰 Best Bet #3 Houston Rockets Moneyline -750 / 78% Confidence / Dominant 76% win probability in sim aligns with superior offensive efficiency and rebounding rates versus depleted Jazz roster.

Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Utah Jazz +12.5 51% / Houston Rockets -12.5 49%

💰 Money Distribution
Utah Jazz +12.5 77% / Houston Rockets -12.5 23%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned (public bets and money both lean Jazz)

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -12.5 after opening around -11.5; no major RLM despite money concentration on underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.5% EV on Rockets -12.5 — Simulation cover exceeds implied odds probability (52.4%), justified by Houston’s pace-adjusted efficiency and Jazz injuries creating exploitable mismatch.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Utah Jazz | 24% |
| Win % for Houston Rockets | 76% |
| Spread Cover % for Utah Jazz +12.5 | 44% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 228.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18, -6] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure from provided data inconsistencies.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment and money heavily favor Jazz +12.5 (77% money), but simulation metrics and Rockets’ superior current-season form (12-4 record, strong defensive rebounding) indicate value in fading the public. Game projects low-scoring with average total under the 234.5 line, driven by mutual injuries impacting frontcourts and slower paces. Contrarian play optimal as sharp resistance implied by sim convergence.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Utah Jazz +12.5 — Mathematical probability favors Rockets cover with positive EV edge.

Highlights unavailable.