Utah State vs Boise State

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-28 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-28 03:25 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Utah State / +4.5 / -110 / 52% / Simulation shows close game with Utah covering in over half of runs, supported by home-field advantage and recent scoring trends against similar defenses.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / 55.5 / -110 / 51% / Both teams average high totals in recent games (Utah 63 combined, Boise 64), with explosive offenses and vulnerable secondaries favoring a shootout.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Boise State / Moneyline / -180 / 58% / Boise’s superior SP+ rating and road success against MWC foes give them the edge, despite Utah’s home boost.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Utah State | 40% |
| Win % for Boise State | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for Utah State +4.5 | 52% |
| Spread Cover % for Boise State -4.5 | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 55.5: 51% / Under 55.5: 49% |
| Average Total Points | 60 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20, 25] |

🏈 Matchup: Utah State vs Boise State on 2025-11-28

Game Times

ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Utah State 42% / Boise State 58%

💰 Money Distribution

Utah State 48% / Boise State 52%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Opened at Boise State -5, moved to -4.5 with balanced action but slight sharp money on Utah, indicating value on the home dog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Utah State +4.5; recent form and simulation probabilities exceed implied odds, with no major injuries shifting the line unfairly.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Bryson Barnes / Over Passing Yards / 225.5 / -115 / 65% / Barnes averages 240 yards in home games this season, facing Boise’s secondary that allows 250+ to QBs with similar mobility; Utah’s tempo boosts attempts.
Player Prop #2: Maddux Madsen / Over Passing Yards / 250.5 / -110 / 62% / Madsen has topped 260 in 4 of last 5 road starts, exploiting Utah’s pass defense ranked outside top 80 in explosive plays allowed.
Player Prop #3: Malik Sherrod / Over Rushing Yards / 85.5 / -105 / 68% / Sherrod’s 95 yards per game average surges against run-weak fronts like Utah’s (allowing 150+ rush yards recently), with Boise leaning on ground game for balance.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Boise State, aligning with sharp money distribution, but the line movement and simulation suggest value in fading slightly on the spread without full contrarian push. Both offenses rank high in yards per play (Utah 6.2, Boise 6.5), pointing to a high-scoring affair over the total despite average defenses. Injuries are minimal, with no key absences confirmed as of game day.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Boise State — mathematical edge favors their win probability in 58% of simulations, backed by superior efficiency metrics.

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