Valparaiso vs Southern Illinois

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-21 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-21 11:32 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Southern Illinois / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 55% / Southern Illinois shows stronger recent form and home advantage, with simulation indicating a 52% cover rate against Valparaiso’s defensive struggles.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams exhibit moderate tempos and solid defensive rebounding in current season matchups, leading to lower-scoring games on average.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Southern Illinois / Moneyline / -250 / 65% / Higher win probability from adjusted efficiency ratings and Valparaiso’s road inconsistencies support the favorite.]

Valparaiso vs Southern Illinois on 2026-01-21

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Southern Illinois 62% / Valparaiso 38%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Southern Illinois 68% / Valparaiso 32%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

[Opened at -4, moved to -4.5 with steady action on the favorite, no significant RLM observed.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Southern Illinois spread; simulation and efficiency metrics converge with market consensus, providing value despite public lean.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Valparaiso | 35% |
| Win % for Southern Illinois | 65% |
| Spread Cover % for Valparaiso +4.5 | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 138.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, +3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Southern Illinois, supported by their superior adjusted defensive efficiency and home splits in the current season. Following the favorite is optimal here, as no contrarian signals like RLM emerge, and EV confirms the edge. The game outlook leans toward moderate scoring, with both offenses facing rebounding challenges that favor the under.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Southern Illinois] — simulation and market data point to the highest probability of success for the home favorite.

Highlights unavailable.