Vanderbilt vs Kentucky

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-27 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-27 07:47 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Vanderbilt / +9.5 / -110 / 54% / Simulation shows 52.1% cover rate with Vanderbilt keeping games competitive at home against top teams, supported by Kentucky’s road variance and defensive lapses in recent matchups.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 147.5 / -110 / 53% / Average simulated total of 147.2 aligns with both teams’ slower paces and strong defensive efficiencies in current season trends, favoring low-scoring affair.
💰 Best Bet #3 Kentucky / Moneyline / -420 / 72% / Dominant 70.2% win probability from Monte Carlo, backed by superior adjusted efficiency ratings and matchup edges.

🏀 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky on 2026-01-27

Game Times
ET: 09:00 PM
CT: 08:00 PM
MT: 07:00 PM
PT: 06:00 PM
AKT: 05:00 PM
HST: 03:00 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|———————————|——————————–|
| Win % for Vanderbilt | 28.5% |
| Win % for Kentucky | 70.2% |
| Spread Cover % for Vanderbilt +9.5 | 52.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 147.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (KY – Vandy) | [-22.1, 28.4] |

💸 Public Bets
Kentucky 74% / Vanderbilt 26%

💰 Money Distribution
Kentucky 71% / Vanderbilt 29%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at Kentucky -9.5 after opening -9, minimal shift despite public lean on favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Vanderbilt +9.5; simulation cover exceeds implied odds probability, with RLM absent but contextual home resilience providing value.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Kentucky, aligning with sharp money distribution and no significant RLM, making a follow on the favorite viable in moneyline but creating spread value on Vanderbilt. Both teams exhibit mid-tempo play with solid defensive rebounding, projecting a controlled game under the total based on efficiency metrics and recent low-scoring trends. Contrarian lean on the spread dog emerges from simulation convergence without forcing a public fade.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Vanderbilt +9.5 — simulation and home metrics indicate the strongest mathematical probability for cover.

Highlights unavailable.