NCAAB
Vanderbilt vs 
Tennessee
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 2:00 PM ET • 1:00 PM CT • 12:00 PM MT • 11:00 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 08:08 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Vanderbilt Commodores / -3.5 at -110 / 55% / Simulation cover probability (53%) edges implied odds amid aligned public/money on home side and Vanderbilt home advantage
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 150.5 at -110 / 52% / Simulated average total of 149.0 falls below line, supported by slight under lean in splits (52%) and defensive matchup factors
💰 Best Bet #3 Vanderbilt Commodores / Moneyline / -184 / 58% / 56% win probability converges with sharp money flow (56% on home spread) and public favoritism
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Vanderbilt Commodores | 56% |
| Win % for Tennessee Volunteers | 44% |
| Spread Cover % for Vanderbilt Commodores | 53% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 149.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18, 21] |
🏀 Matchup: Vanderbilt Commodores vs Tennessee Volunteers on 2026-02-21
💸 Public Bets
[51% / 49%]
💰 Money Distribution
[56% / 44%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable around -1.5 to -2.5 for Vanderbilt across major books
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Vanderbilt spread — Simulation cover probability (53%) surpasses vig-adjusted implied odds (~52%); positive EV confirmed by aligned splits and home advantage.
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment on Vanderbilt (51% bets, 56% money on spread) aligns with sharp money indicators, supporting a follow rather than fade; simulation reinforces home cover edge without RLM concerns. Overall game projects low-scoring at 149 average total, favoring Under based on probability distribution and under-leaning splits. No key injuries alter the outlook, with home-field and metrics converging on Vanderbilt value.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Vanderbilt — highest mathematical probability per sim win/cover rates and market consensus.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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