Vegas Golden Knights vs Colorado Avalanche

League: NHL | Date: 2025-10-31 04:10 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-31 12:16 PM EDT

💰 Best Bet #1 [Vegas Golden Knights / Spread / +1.5 at -250 / 72% / Simulation shows 72% cover rate for Vegas +1.5 amid Colorado’s injury woes, providing a high-probability edge despite the juice.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -120 / 52% / Average simulated goals at 6.0 with both teams’ depleted rosters favoring a tighter defensive battle.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Vegas Golden Knights / Moneyline / +100 / 52% / Vegas edges win probability at 52% in simulations, offering value as the home underdog against an injury-riddled Avalanche.]

Matchup: Colorado Avalanche vs Vegas Golden Knights on 2025-10-31

Game Times

ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Colorado 58% / Vegas 42%

💰 Money Distribution

Colorado 45% / Vegas 55%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened with Colorado at -110 ML, shifted to -120 as public piled on Avalanche; total steady at 6.5 with slight under movement.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Vegas ML due to simulation win probability exceeding implied odds, supported by Colorado’s extensive injuries and Vegas home strength.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Vegas Golden Knights | 52.0% |
| Win % for Colorado Avalanche | 33.0% |
| Tie % | 15.0% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Vegas -1.5 | 28.0% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Colorado +1.5 | 72.0% |
| Over 6.5 Probability | 48.0% |
| Under 6.5 Probability | 52.0% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Vegas – Colorado) | [-3.0, 4.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Nathan MacKinnon / Over 1.5 Points / Line at +150 / 65% / MacKinnon’s high usage (3.97 SOG projected) and power-play role make this likely despite injuries, hitting in 70% of recent games.
• Player Prop #2: Jack Eichel / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / Line at -110 / 68% / Eichel averages 3.2 SOG vs. weakened Colorado defense, covering in 75% of home starts.
• Player Prop #3: Mark Stone / Under 0.5 Goals / Line at -130 / 70% / Stone’s injury status limits scoring; Vegas projections show low goal output in simulated matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Colorado due to their star power and recent form, but sharp money favors Vegas amid divergent percentages and reverse line movement toward the home side. Colorado’s injury list—including Landeskog, Nichushkin, Lehkonen, and others—severely hampers their offense, aligning with simulations showing Vegas control. Overall scoring outlook points low, with defensive metrics and average total of 6.0 goals suggesting under value in a grind-it-out affair.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Vegas Golden Knights — mathematical probability favors the home underdog with positive EV from injuries and simulation edges.

Highlights unavailable for future events.