Vegas Golden Knights vs San Jose Sharks

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-29 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 12:22 PM EST

Vegas Golden Knights vs San Jose Sharks on 2025-11-29

💰 Best Bet #1 San Jose Sharks / +1.5 / -135 / 72% / Sharks cover 70%+ in sims amid Vegas’ 4-game skid and poor recent offense, aligning with RLM toward underdog.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 6 at -110 / 55% / Sim avg 5.7 goals suggests Under edge (52%), flipped per NHL model for contrarian value vs public unders in low totals.

💰 Best Bet #3 Vegas Golden Knights / Moneyline / -210 / 62% / Home ice and superior xGF/xGA give edge despite streak, public/sharp alignment.

Game Times
ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Vegas 72% / San Jose 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Vegas 58% / San Jose 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
VGK ML opened -240, now -210; puckline from -1.5 -145 to -135 despite heavy public on home side, indicating sharp action on Sharks.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.8% on Sharks +1.5 (70% sim cover vs -135 implied 57%; RLM + recent form support).

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Vegas Golden Knights | 58% |
| Win % for San Jose Sharks | 30% |
| Tie % | 12% |
| Spread Cover % for Vegas Golden Knights (-1.5) | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for San Jose Sharks (+1.5) | 70% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.0, 3.5] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Vegas amid home status, but divergent money % and RLM toward Sharks signal sharp resistance, supported by Vegas’ losing streak and subpar xGA. Math favors fading public on Sharks puckline cover. Game projects low-scoring (avg 5.7 goals) due to both teams’ defensive metrics and goalie matchups.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on San Jose Sharks +1.5 — highest EV with sim/model convergence.

Highlights unavailable.