Villanova vs Creighton

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-07 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-07 11:44 AM EST

Villanova vs Creighton on 2026-01-07

💰 Best Bet #1 [Villanova / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 58% / Villanova’s strong home form and eight-game winning streak at the Pavilion provide a clear edge, supported by recent defensive efficiency and Creighton’s road struggles in Big East play.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 141.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at a deliberate pace with solid perimeter defense, limiting three-point opportunities, and recent games trending below this total amid Creighton’s injury adjustments.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Villanova / Moneyline / -280 / 72% / Dominant season record and head-to-head historical advantage make Villanova the reliable favorite against a depleted Creighton squad.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Villanova | 72% |
| Win % for Creighton | 28% |
| Spread Cover % for Villanova -6.5 | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 138.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [2.1, 10.3] |

Game Times
ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Villanova 65% / Creighton 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Villanova 75% / Creighton 25%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
The spread opened at -6.5 and has held steady, with no significant reverse movement despite public leaning toward the favorite, indicating consensus on Villanova’s edge.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Villanova spread / Simulation and form metrics show a positive edge, bolstered by Creighton’s key injury and Villanova’s home dominance, outweighing public action.]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Villanova, aligning with sharp money indicators and strong home metrics, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Creighton’s season-long injury to Jackson McAndrew weakens their frontcourt, tilting the matchup toward the Wildcats. Overall, expect a controlled, lower-scoring affair given both teams’ defensive rebounding and turnover rates.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Villanova / No clear edge]

Highlights unavailable.