Virginia Cavaliers vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-08 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-08 05:30 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Virginia Cavaliers / Spread / -6.5 at -105 / 58% / Virginia’s superior SP+ ratings and Wake Forest’s defensive struggles in recent games favor a comfortable cover despite the line.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 47.5 at -105 / 52% / Both teams rank low in yards per play this season, with Virginia’s efficient but low-tempo offense and Wake’s turnover-prone attack projecting below the total.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Virginia Cavaliers / Moneyline / -215 / 72% / Home-field advantage and key Wake injuries tilt the win probability heavily toward Virginia in this ACC clash.]

Virginia Cavaliers vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons on 2025-11-08

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[70% Virginia Cavaliers / 30% Wake Forest Demon Deacons]

💰 Money Distribution

[65% Virginia Cavaliers / 35% Wake Forest Demon Deacons]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -6 for Virginia and has held steady around -6.5 across major books, with minimal movement indicating balanced action despite public leaning on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3% on Virginia spread; simulation convergence with current season metrics like Virginia’s 75% home win rate and Wake’s 4-5 road ATS record supports value against the line.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Virginia Cavaliers | 72.0% |
| Win % for Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 26.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Virginia Cavaliers | 58.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Points | 44.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.5, 15.2] |

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⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Virginia, aligning with sharp money indicators and line stability, making a follow on the favorite the optimal approach based on EV calculations. Wake Forest’s recent upset over SMU shows potential, but injuries to Virginia’s offensive line are offset by the Demon Deacons’ own depth issues and poor red-zone efficiency. Overall game scoring outlook leans low, as both defenses rank top-60 in success rate allowed this season, projecting a controlled, under-paced affair.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Virginia Cavaliers]

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