Virginia vs Dayton

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-06 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-06 10:23 AM EST

Virginia vs Dayton on 2025-12-06

💰 Best Bet #1 [Virginia / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 55% / Virginia’s defensive efficiency and home-court edge in neutral site matchups give them a strong projection to cover, supported by recent form and simulation edges.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit high tempo and efficient scoring in recent games, with average totals exceeding the line based on adjusted offensive ratings.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Virginia / Moneyline / -280 / 65% / Simulation win probability aligns with market favoritism, factoring in superior overall metrics and matchup advantages.]

Game Times
ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[70% Virginia / 30% Dayton]

💰 Money Distribution
[60% Virginia / 40% Dayton]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Opened at -5.5, moved to -6.5 with balanced action indicating sharp support for Virginia]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Virginia spread due to reverse line movement against public lean and positive simulation cover rate]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Virginia | 65.0% |
| Win % for Dayton | 35.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Virginia | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.0% / Under: 48.0% |
| Average Total Points | 148.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15.0, 25.0] |

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Virginia, aligning with sharp money distribution and line movement, making a follow strategy optimal as metrics confirm the favorite’s edge without overvaluation. The game projects as moderately high-scoring given both teams’ offensive efficiencies and defensive vulnerabilities in transition. No major contrarian signals present, supporting consensus plays.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Virginia] — mathematical probability favors the Cavaliers based on win projections and EV alignment.

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