Virginia vs Stanford

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-10 02:15 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-10 12:22 PM EST

Virginia vs Stanford on 2026-01-10

💰 Best Bet #1 Virginia / Spread / -11.5 at -110 / 58% / Virginia’s top-ranked defense limits Stanford’s offense, covering in 6 of 9 home games this season

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 130.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams rank low in tempo and efficiency, with recent games averaging under the line

💰 Best Bet #3 Virginia / Moneyline / -650 / 75% / Superior adjusted ratings and home advantage give Virginia a clear edge over struggling Stanford

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Virginia | 75.0% |
| Win % for Stanford | 25.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Virginia | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Points | 132.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [5.0, 25.0] |

Game Times
ET: 2:15 PM
CT: 1:15 PM
MT: 12:15 PM
PT: 11:15 AM
AKT: 10:15 AM
HST: 8:15 AM

💸 Public Bets
[68% / 32%]

💰 Money Distribution
[60% / 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Stable at -11.5; opened at -10.5, slight move toward Virginia despite public action]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Virginia spread; implied probability undervalues defensive matchup and home efficiency]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Isaac McKneely / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 72% / McKneely averages 16.2 PPG recently, exploiting Stanford’s poor perimeter defense allowing 35% from three

Player Prop #2: Maxime Raynaud / Under Rebounds / 8.5 at -110 / 68% / Virginia’s elite rebounding defense (top 15 nationally) limits Raynaud below his 9.8 average in road games

Player Prop #3: Kadin Shedrick / Over Blocks / 1.5 at -110 / 70% / Shedrick’s rim protection (2.1 BPG) thrives against Stanford’s interior scoring attempts

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Virginia, aligning with sharp money and line stability, making a follow on the favorite optimal based on EV calculations. Stanford’s recent road struggles and Virginia’s defensive dominance suggest a controlled, lower-scoring affair. Overall game outlook points to under, with combined offensive efficiencies below league average.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Virginia — strong convergence of metrics and market data supports the home favorite’s probability of victory.

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