Washington Capitals vs Dallas Stars

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-07 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-07 10:41 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Washington Capitals / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 52% / Sharp money evident in line movement from -1.3 to -1.5 despite 57% public on Stars +1.5, supported by home-ice metrics and Dallas injuries impacting depth]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 55% / Flipped recommendation per NHL historical trends; simulation shows 55% over probability, but defensive xGA and recent low-scoring form for both teams favor under despite public 72% on over]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Washington Capitals / Moneyline / -135 / 52% / Slight edge from 52% win probability, reverse line movement, and contextual factors like Stars’ injury toll outweighing even public split]

Washington Capitals vs Dallas Stars on 2026-01-07

Game Times

ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Washington Capitals 52% / Dallas Stars 48% (ML); Dallas +1.5 57% (spread)

💰 Money Distribution

Washington Capitals 54% / Dallas Stars 46% (spread); Over 72% (total)

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line moved from Capitals -1.3 to -1.5 despite public on Stars +1.5, indicating sharp action on home side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% EV on Capitals ML due to reverse line movement and home metrics outweighing public fade.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Washington Capitals | 52.00% |
| Win % for Dallas Stars | 48.00% |
| Spread Cover % for Washington Capitals | 45.00% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55.00% / Under: 45.00% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.20 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.00, 3.00] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Stars +1.5 and over, but divergent money distribution shows sharp action on the Capitals spread and moneyline, supported by reverse line movement. Following the sharp side is optimal here, as EV calculations confirm value despite the public’s split on the ML. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with both teams’ defensive metrics and injuries suggesting controlled play rather than a shootout.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Stars +1.5 — Capitals hold the mathematical edge with home advantage and sharp backing.

Highlights unavailable.