Washington Commanders vs Denver Broncos

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-30 08:20 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 06:04 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Denver Broncos / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 58% / Broncos on 8-game win streak with superior EPA metrics; Commanders plagued by QB injuries and poor recent form (outscored 109-49 last 3 games).
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 43.5 at -110 / 55% / Both defenses top-10 in yards allowed; Broncos games unders 72% this season, Commanders low-scoring losses signal defensive battle.
💰 Best Bet #3 Denver Broncos / Moneyline / -220 / 72% / Dominant turnover margin (+12 season) and road dominance vs. weakened Commanders secondary.

Washington Commanders vs Denver Broncos on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 08:20 PM
CT: 07:20 PM
MT: 06:20 PM
PT: 05:20 PM
AKT: 04:20 PM
HST: 02:20 PM

💸 Public Bets
Denver Broncos 68% / Washington Commanders 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Denver Broncos 58% / Washington Commanders 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Broncos -4.5, moved to -5.5/-6 amid sharp action on Broncos despite public lean; total steady at 43.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Broncos spread — RLM supports pros on favorite, Daniels out boosts edge; sim projects 72% Broncos win.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Washington Commanders | 25% |
| Win % for Denver Broncos | 72% |
| Spread Cover % for Washington Commanders | 45% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 42.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 24] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Bo Nix / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 at -115 / 68% / Nix 285+ yds last 5 starts, Commanders allow 260+ pass yds/game to QBs; high usage vs weak secondary.
Player Prop #2: Courtland Sutton / Over Receptions / 5.5 at -120 / 62% / Primary target (32% targets), Commanders CBs vulnerable post-injuries; 6+ rec 70% recent.
Player Prop #3: Chris Rodriguez Jr. / Over Rushing Yards / 55.5 at -110 / 65% / Lead back with Daniels out limits passes; Broncos middling run D (4.8 ypc allowed), 70+ yds last 3.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily backs Broncos aligning with sharp money per divergent splits and RLM, confirming follow on Denver with Daniels sidelined forcing Mariota into low-efficiency game. Defenses dictate low total (Commanders allow 24+ pts last 3, but Broncos stifle offenses). Overall outlook favors grind-it-out under with Broncos control.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Denver Broncos — sim and metrics converge on 72% win probability.

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