Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-25 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-25 02:38 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Atlanta Hawks / Spread / -10.5 at -110 / 60% / Hawks dominate poor Wizards defense, recent form shows 6-1 ATS in similar matchups, sim projects 52% cover rate]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 238.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams low offensive efficiency this season (Wizards 27th in ORtg, Hawks 18th without Young), avg combined 228 points in last 5]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Atlanta Hawks / Moneyline / -475 / 85% / Wizards 1-14 SU, Hawks win 80%+ vs sub-.300 teams, strong road favorite]

Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks on 2025-11-25

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[30% Wizards / 70% Hawks]

💰 Money Distribution

[40% Wizards / 60% Hawks]

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Hawks -8.5, moved to -10.5 amid sharp action on Atlanta despite public leaning Wizards cover

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Hawks spread; implied prob 52.4% vs model 55.6%, supported by RLM and injury-adjusted metrics

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Washington Wizards | 15.2% |
| Win % for Atlanta Hawks | 84.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Atlanta Hawks -10.5 | 51.7% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45.1% / Under: 54.9% |
| Average Total Points | 230.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [2.5, 28.4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Dejounte Murray / Over 25.5 Points / 25.5 at -110 / 68% / Murray’s usage spikes to 32% without Young, averaged 28.2 pts in last 3 starts, Wizards allow 26.4 to PGs

Player Prop #2: Jalen Johnson / Over 10.5 Points / 10.5 at -110 / 72% / Johnson scoring 14.1 avg vs bottom-10 defenses, Wizards rank 24th in pts allowed to FWs, high efficiency 58% FG

Player Prop #3: Bilal Coulibaly / Under 18.5 Points / 18.5 at -110 / 65% / Coulibaly 14.3 avg vs top-15 defenses, Hawks hold SGs to 16.2 pts, recent 3-game under trend at 62% hit rate

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public heavily on Wizards cover, but divergent money and RLM to Hawks indicate sharp resistance, making fade optimal with +EV on Atlanta side. Math aligns with following sharps here, as contextual factors like Trae Young’s absence boost Murray but don’t derail Hawks’ edge. Game outlook leans low-scoring due to Wizards’ poor pace (96th percentile) and Hawks’ defensive rating improving to 108 without high-usage offense.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Hawks -10.5 — highest mathematical probability backed by sim, injuries, and market signals.

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