Washington Wizards vs Boston Celtics

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-04 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-04 07:42 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Boston Celtics / -9.5 / -110 / 62% / Celtics dominate poor Wizards (3-17), covering in 7 of last 10; line steam from -8.5 despite public fade potential.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 228.5 at -110 / 58% / Wizards rank bottom in pace/efficiency, Celtics defensive rating strong; 52% money on Under with low-scoring trends.
💰 Best Bet #3 Boston Celtics / Moneyline / -450 / 78% / Superior record (12-9 vs 3-17), key Wizards injuries boost edge despite Tatum out.

Washington Wizards vs Boston Wizards on 2025-12-04

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Wizards 25% / Celtics 75%

💰 Money Distribution
Wizards 33% / Celtics 67%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Celtics spread moved from -8.5 to -9.5 amid heavy public action on favorite.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Washington Wizards | 22% |
| Win % for Boston Celtics | 78% |
| Spread Cover % for Washington Wizards +9.5 | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for Boston Celtics -9.5 | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 228.5: 42% / Under: 58% |
| Average Total Points | 224.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15, +6] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Neemias Queta / Over 20.5 PRA / -115 / 72% / Queta steps up with Tatum out/JB doubtful; Wizards weak vs centers, recent avg 24 PRA in similar spots.
Player Prop #2: Jayson Tatum / Under Points (if plays) / 28.5 / -110 / 68% / Confirmed out per reports; usage shifts lower efficiency.
Player Prop #3: Bub Carrington / Over Assists / 4.5 / -120 / 65% / Increased role with Wizards injuries (Sarr/Coulibaly out); Wizards pace favors playmaking.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Celtics spread (75%) with money slightly less (67%), indicating possible sharp resistance on Wizards cover amid line steam to -9.5. Contextual factors like Wizards’ 3-17 record, multiple injuries (Coulibaly, Sarr out), and Celtics’ recent 7-3 run support following public here, as EV aligns positive. Game projects low-scoring with Wizards’ poor offense (bottom ORtg) vs Celtics’ solid DRtg.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Celtics — data convergence on favorite despite injuries, highest win probability at 78%.

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