NBA

Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets

League: NBA | Game Time: 6:00 PM ET • 5:00 PM CT • 4:00 PM MT • 3:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 07:11 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Wizards +11.5 at -110 62% Public bets (55%) and money (60%) converge on the Wizards spread amid extensive injuries to key players on both sides, supporting a closer contest than the line suggests despite Charlotte’s favoritism.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 227.5 at -110 72% Both teams severely depleted by injuries to star contributors, recent Wizards totals inflated but simulation projects average of 220 points with strong under probability aligned with public (57%) and money (61%) lean.
💰 Best Bet #3 Wizards +430 58% Model estimates 28% win probability exceeds implied 19%, value as sharp money resists heavy public (90%+) on Charlotte ML in injury-riddled matchup.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Washington Wizards | 28% |
| Win % for Charlotte Hornets | 72% |
| Spread Cover % for Washington Wizards (+11.5) | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 30% / Under: 70% |
| Average Total Points | 220 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-6, 34] |

🏀 Matchup: Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets

💸 Public Bets
Wizards 55% / Hornets 45% (spread)

💰 Money Distribution
Wizards 60% / Hornets 40% (spread)

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned (spread favors Wizards side)

📉 Line Movement
N/A from provided data

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Wizards +11.5 (model cover 55% > 52% breakeven); +8% on Under 227.5 (70% prob with injury-adjusted offense)

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money align on the Wizards spread cover while heavily favoring Charlotte on the moneyline, creating divergence that supports fading the public ML action given injury impacts. Sharp indicators via money % point to value on the dog spread, with no reverse line movement data to contradict. Overall game projects low-scoring affair (avg 220) due to offensive depletion from outs like Alex Sarr, Trae Young, Miles Bridges, and others.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Wizards +11.5 — highest EV from model convergence, money split, and contextual injury factors.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.