Washington Wizards vs Denver Nuggets

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-22 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-22 06:08 PM EST

Washington Wizards vs Denver Nuggets on 2026-01-22

💰 Best Bet #1 [Denver Nuggets / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 60% / Nuggets hold a strong edge without Jokic, covering in 7 of 10 similar spots this season, while Wizards struggle defensively allowing 123 PPG.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 229.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at high pace; Nuggets average 118 PPG without Jokic, Wizards allow 120+ recently, pushing totals over in 6 of last 8 combined.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Denver Nuggets / Moneyline / -220 / 72% / Denver’s depth shines in Jokic’s absence, winning 70% of games without him; Wizards on 7-game skid with key injuries.]

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[30% Wizards / 70% Nuggets]

💰 Money Distribution
[20% Wizards / 80% Nuggets]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -6 and steadied at -5.5 despite heavy public action on Denver, indicating sharp support for the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4% on Nuggets spread] — Implied probability undervalues Denver’s 72% win simulation and strong ATS record without Jokic, creating value against Wizards’ poor home defense.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Washington Wizards | 28% |
| Win % for Denver Nuggets | 72% |
| Spread Cover % for Washington Wizards (+5.5) | 46% |
| Spread Cover % for Denver Nuggets (-5.5) | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55% / Under: 45% |
| Average Total Points | 232.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.4, +8.7] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jamal Murray / Over Points / 28.5 at -115 / 75% / Murray averages 28.7 PPG without Jokic this season, exploiting Wizards’ perimeter defense that ranks 28th in opponent 3PT%; usage spikes to 32%.

Player Prop #2: Aaron Gordon / Over Rebounds / 7.5 at -110 / 70% / Gordon grabs 8.2 RPG in Jokic-off games, facing Wizards who allow 45+ RPG to forwards; his on/off plus-minus surges without the center.

Player Prop #3: Jordan Poole / Under Points / 20.5 at -105 / 68% / Poole held under in 5 of last 7 vs top-10 defenses; Nuggets’ backcourt pressure limits his efficiency to 42% FG, with turnover rate at 18%.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Nuggets, aligning with sharp money and line stability, making a follow strategy optimal given Denver’s proven success without Jokic and Wizards’ defensive woes from injuries like Coulibaly and Whitmore out. The matchup projects as moderately high-scoring, with Nuggets’ pace and Wizards’ porous paint (allowing 58 PPG inside) favoring the over, though not overwhelmingly due to potential Murray load management. Overall, math supports Denver across the board without forcing a fade.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Nuggets] — Highest probability stems from Denver’s 72% sim win rate and positive EV on key lines.

Highlights unavailable.