Washington Wizards vs New Orleans Pelicans

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-09 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-09 06:23 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Washington Wizards / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Wizards leverage home-court edge and Pelicans’ extensive injuries to key defenders, boosting cover probability per recent form and matchup data.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 225.5 at -110 / 52% / Both squads exhibit elevated pace ratings in current season games, with Pelicans’ depleted roster likely increasing transition opportunities and total points.
💰 Best Bet #3 Washington Wizards / Moneyline / -140 / 57% / Superior win projection stems from injury-disrupted Pelicans lineup and Wizards’ stronger offensive efficiency against weakened fronts.

Washington Wizards vs New Orleans Pelicans on 2026-01-09

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

45% Wizards / 55% Pelicans

💰 Money Distribution

60% Wizards / 40% Pelicans

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Spread opened at Wizards -1.5, moved to -2.5 amid sharp action on home side despite public lean toward Pelicans; total climbed from 223.5 to 225.5 on injury-related over bets.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Wizards spread, driven by reverse line movement against public percentage and Pelicans’ injury impact reducing their defensive rating by 8.5 points per 100 possessions in similar spots this season.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Washington Wizards | 57.2% |
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 42.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Washington Wizards (-2.5) | 54.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 225.5: 51.3% / Under 225.5: 48.7% |
| Average Total Points | 226.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, 12.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Zion Williamson / Over Points + Rebounds + Assists / 34.5 at -114 / 72% / Williamson’s usage surges to 32% without Jones and Murray, averaging 37.2 PRA in last 5 games versus bottom-10 defenses like Wizards, supported by high-pace matchup.
Player Prop #2: Bilal Coulibaly / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 68% / Coulibaly exploits Pelicans’ thin wing depth (Bey, Jones out), hitting over in 7 of 10 home games with 16.8 PPG average against injury-hit opponents this season.
Player Prop #3: Jordan Poole / Over Assists / 5.5 at -112 / 65% / Poole’s playmaking rises with Pelicans’ backcourt absences, dishing 6.4 APG in recent outings versus depleted defenses, per on/off metrics showing +4.2 assist differential.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors the Pelicans amid Zion hype, but sharp money and reverse line movement align with the Wizards, creating value on the home side without needing a full fade. Mathematical edges confirm following professionals here, as Pelicans’ injuries inflate Wizards’ offensive opportunities. Overall scoring tilts higher due to both teams’ fast pace (Wizards 102.3, Pelicans 101.8 possessions per 48) and defensive vulnerabilities exposed by absences.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Pelicans — Wizards hold the strongest probability edge from injury-adjusted metrics and market signals.

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