NCAAF
West Virginia vs 
Texas Tech
League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 09:04 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Texas Tech / Spread / -25.5 at -110 / 72% / Texas Tech’s dominant 10-1 record, #1 defense, and 91.5% FPI win probability overpower WVU’s 4-7 form and weak recent showings.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 60.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams’ recent games trend high-scoring (TT averages 58+ pts in last 3), with TT offense exploding despite strong D; pace and explosive plays favor push past line.
💰 Best Bet #3 Texas Tech / Moneyline / -3000 / 92% / Overwhelming edge in ratings, road dominance, and matchup metrics make blowout likely per simulations and FPI.
🏈 West Virginia vs Texas Tech on 2025-11-29
Game Times
ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM
💸 Public Bets
West Virginia 20% / Texas Tech 80%
💰 Money Distribution
West Virginia 25% / Texas Tech 75%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Opened Texas Tech -22.5, moved to -25.5 amid heavy TT action despite public fade potential; stable total around 60.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Texas Tech spread – RLM supports pros on TT, FPI/SP+ convergence, TT ATS 9-2.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for West Virginia | 8% |
| Win % for Texas Tech | 92% |
| Spread Cover % for West Virginia (+25.5) | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for Texas Tech (-25.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 54% / Under: 46% |
| Average Total Points | 61.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [Texas Tech -18, -33] |
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Behren Morton / Over Passing Yards / 325.5 at -115 / 78% / TT QB averages 340+ yds recently vs weak WVU pass D (allows 280/gm); high tempo, no key injuries boost usage.
Player Prop #2: Jahiem White / Under Rushing Yards / 55.5 at -110 / 71% / WVU RB faces #1 havoc D (TT top explosive play suppression); recent WVU games low rush volume vs strong fronts.
Player Prop #3: Micah Hudson / Over Receiving Yards / 85.5 at -112 / 69% / TT WR high target share (25%), 110+ avg last 3; WVU secondary vulnerable to big plays (35% explosive rate allowed).
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money heavily aligned on Texas Tech, matching sharp indicators via RLM and FPI (91.5% win prob); follow public here as metrics confirm no value in fading dominant road fave. TT’s elite D limits WVU, but explosive offense projects moderate total lean over on pace. No major injuries reported, weather neutral (34°F light wind).
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Texas Tech — 92% sim win rate and +EV across markets.
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