Winnipeg Jets vs Carolina Hurricanes

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-21 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-21 05:42 PM EST

Winnipeg Jets vs Carolina Hurricanes on 2025-11-21

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Winnipeg Jets / Puck Line / +1.5 at -180 / 75% / Jets cover comfortably due to home ice and Hurricanes’ road struggles without Slavin, despite Hellebuyck injury]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 52% / Both teams show strong defensive metrics in recent games, with Jets allowing 2.5 GPG and Hurricanes 2.2 GPG, favoring low-scoring affair]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Carolina Hurricanes / Moneyline / -155 / 53% / Hurricanes’ superior xGF/xGA (1.15/0.95 per 60) and Andersen’s .920 save % give edge over Jets’ backup goalie]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Winnipeg Jets | 42.0% |
| Win % for Carolina Hurricanes | 53.0% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Winnipeg Jets +1.5 | 75.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.0, 3.0] |

💸 Public Bets
[35% Jets / 65% Hurricanes]

💰 Money Distribution
[45% Jets / 55% Hurricanes]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Hurricanes -1.5 +140, moved to +150 with 65% public on Hurricanes, indicating some sharp action on Jets side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Jets +1.5; implied prob 64% vs model 75%, supported by Jets’ home success rate (55% cover +1.5) and Hurricanes’ 40% road cover rate without key defender.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Sebastian Aho / Over 0.5 Points / -120 / 70% / Aho’s 1.2 points per game average against Western teams, high usage on top line, and Jets’ weakened defense without Hellebuyck support over.
Player Prop #2: Kyle Connor / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / -115 / 68% / Connor averages 3.4 SOG at home, Hurricanes allow 28 shots per game, matchup favors volume despite backup goalie.
Player Prop #3: Andrei Svechnikov / Under 0.5 Goals / +110 / 65% / Svechnikov’s 12% shooting regression on road, Jets’ penalty kill at 85%, defensive metrics suggest under in tight game.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Hurricanes with aligned money, supported by sharp action on the favorite, making a follow optimal rather than a fade. The math confirms value on Jets covering the puck line due to home advantage offsetting goalie injury. Overall game outlook points to under 6 goals, as both defenses rank top-5 in xGA per 60, with recent trends showing 4.8 average total in similar matchups.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Hurricanes — superior offensive efficiency and goalie edge provide the best probability of winning.

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