Winnipeg Jets vs Florida Panthers

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-22 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-22 10:16 AM EST

Winnipeg Jets vs Florida Panthers on 2026-01-22

💰 Best Bet #1 Winnipeg Jets / Puck Line -1.5 at +160 / 52% / Jets leverage home-ice advantage with strong recent form and superior xGA metrics against Panthers’ road offense.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total 5.5 at -110 / 55% / Defensive structures and goalie matchups point to low-scoring affair, flipped from simulation favoring controlled play.

💰 Best Bet #3 Winnipeg Jets / Moneyline -135 / 58% / Consensus edges from line stability and Jets’ superior Corsi percentage in current season home games.

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
65% Winnipeg Jets / 35% Florida Panthers

💰 Money Distribution
60% Winnipeg Jets / 40% Florida Panthers

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Jets -130 ML and moved slightly to -135 with balanced action, indicating stable market without significant sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Jets moneyline, driven by home-field value and positive EV from implied probabilities versus simulated win rates.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Winnipeg Jets | 55% |
| Win % for Florida Panthers | 40% |
| Spread Cover % for Winnipeg Jets | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 6.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3, 4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Kyle Connor / Over 3.5 Shots / 3.5 at -120 / 70% / Connor averages 4.2 shots per game in home matchups, exploiting Panthers’ defensive lapses with high volume usage.

Player Prop #2: Aleksander Barkov / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -150 / 65% / Barkov’s 1.2 points per game pace and Panthers’ power-play efficiency support multi-point potential against Jets’ penalty kill.

Player Prop #3: Connor Hellebuyck / Over 27.5 Saves / 27.5 at -110 / 60% / Expected 30+ shots faced based on Panthers’ shot generation rate, aligning with Hellebuyck’s workload in high-stakes home games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Jets with aligned money distribution, supporting a follow strategy as sharp action reinforces home value without reverse line movement. Contextual factors like no major injuries and Jets’ superior xGF at home outweigh Panthers’ road fatigue, making the favorite the mathematical play. Overall game scoring outlook favors a tight contest under the total, with both teams’ defensive metrics limiting high-danger chances.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Winnipeg Jets — highest probability from converged metrics and positive EV alignment.

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