Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-01 03:10 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-11-01 12:21 PM EDT

🏒 Pittsburgh Penguins @ Winnipeg Jets on 2025-11-01

Game Times

• ET: 3:10 PM
• CT: 2:10 PM
• MT: 1:10 PM
• PT: 12:10 PM
• AKT: 11:10 AM
• HST: 9:10 AM

💰 Best Bet #1 Winnipeg Jets / Spread / -1.5 at +142 / 42% / Jets’ strong home defense and Penguins’ injury absences create value on the puck line, with simulation showing solid cover potential against a road-weary Pittsburgh squad.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 6.5 at -125 / 53% / Both teams exhibit defensive regression in recent games, goalie matchups favor low scoring, and average simulated total aligns closely with the line for positive EV.
💰 Best Bet #3 Winnipeg Jets / Moneyline / -170 / 64% / Jets’ superior xGF and home-ice edge overpower Penguins’ aging core, with win probability exceeding implied odds amid sharp money alignment.

💸 Public Bets

68% Jets / 32% Penguins

💰 Money Distribution

58% Jets / 42% Penguins

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Opened at Jets -160 ML and 6 total; moved to -170 ML and 6.5 total with slight steam toward Jets despite public lean, indicating possible sharp action on the favorite amid stable spreads.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Winnipeg Jets | 63.4% |
| Win % for Pittsburgh Penguins | 36.6% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Winnipeg Jets -1.5 | 40.1% |
| Over/Under Probability for 6.5 | Over: 47.7% / Under: 52.3% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Jets – Pens) | [-4.0, 6.0] |

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Penguins +1.5 (sim cover exceeds implied prob slightly after adjusting for OT variance); under total shows +7% EV at +105 on 6-line books due to defensive regression and goalie matchups

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Sidney Crosby / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -120 / 68% / Crosby’s high usage rate and Penguins’ reliance on him against Jets’ PK (82% success) support hitting in 7 of last 10 games, with matchup favoring offensive output.
• Player Prop #2: Connor Hellebuyck / Over 25.5 Saves / 25.5 at -110 / 62% / Penguins average 28 shots per game on road, Hellebuyck’s .925 SV% in home starts projects over easily, backed by sim’s goal distribution.
• Player Prop #3: Kyle Connor / Over 3.5 Shots on Goal / 3.5 at +105 / 58% / Connor’s 4.2 SOG average vs Eastern teams, plus Penguins’ weak high-danger defense (12% allowed), indicates strong volume in a favorable home matchup.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Jets on the moneyline, aligning with sharp money distribution but showing divergence on the spread where pros appear to back the Penguins +1.5 amid injury impacts to key Jets like Perfetti and Nyquist. Following the public on the Jets ML makes sense mathematically given the 63.4% win probability, though fading on the under provides the strongest EV due to both teams’ subpar shooting percentages and elite goalie saves (Hellebuyck .930, Jarry .915 recently). Overall game scoring outlook leans low, with defensive metrics and rest advantages pointing to under 6.5 goals in 52% of simulations.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Jets ML — win probability and home dominance outweigh any contrarian spread value for the highest edge.

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