Wisconsin vs UCLA

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-06 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-06 11:27 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Wisconsin / Spread / +3.5 at -110 / 58% / Wisconsin’s home-court edge and defensive rebounding strength (45% rate) provide cover value against UCLA’s transition-heavy style, especially with Badgers’ recent quad-2 wins showing resilience.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams average 75+ points in recent games with tempos above 70 possessions; Wisconsin allows 70 PPG at home, while UCLA’s offense ranks top-50 in efficiency, pushing toward a higher-scoring affair despite solid defenses.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [UCLA / Moneyline / -165 / 56% / UCLA’s superior quad-1 record (3-2) and efficient shooting (52% eFG) give them the edge over Wisconsin’s 0-5 quad-1 slump, making the road favorite a solid play.]

Wisconsin vs UCLA on 2026-01-06

Game Times

ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[62% Wisconsin / 38% UCLA]

💰 Money Distribution
[45% Wisconsin / 55% UCLA]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at UCLA -2.5 but moved to -3.5 amid sharp money on the Bruins, despite public leaning home team—indicating professional action on UCLA.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Wisconsin +3.5; public overreaction to home bias creates value, supported by Badgers’ 55% ATS home record this season and UCLA’s 40% road cover rate.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Wisconsin | 44% |
| Win % for UCLA | 56% |
| Spread Cover % for Wisconsin (+3.5) | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 58% / Under: 42% |
| Average Total Points | 151.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.5, +6.2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: John Blackwell (Wisconsin) / Over Points / 14.5 at -115 / 65% / Blackwell averages 15.2 PPG in home games with 28% usage rate; UCLA’s perimeter defense ranks 120th in opponent 3P%, favoring his 38% three-point shooting in recent form.

Player Prop #2: Sebastian Mack (UCLA) / Over Points / 16.5 at -110 / 68% / Mack’s 17.8 PPG on the road exploits Wisconsin’s 150th-ranked guard defense; his 55% eFG against Big Ten-like foes supports the over in a projected up-tempo matchup.

Player Prop #3: Steven Crowl (Wisconsin) / Over Rebounds / 7.5 at -105 / 60% / Crowl grabs 8.1 RPG at home with UCLA vulnerable inside (42% def reb rate); Badgers’ slow pace boosts second-chance opportunities against Bruins’ average frontcourt.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors Wisconsin due to home advantage and media hype around their tournament push, but divergent money flow toward UCLA signals sharp action on the Bruins’ better efficiency metrics (108 off rating vs. Wisconsin’s 102). Following the money aligns with math here, as UCLA’s recent form (wins over Iowa, strong quad-1 play) outweighs Wisconsin’s struggles. Overall game scoring outlook leans over, with combined offenses projecting 152 points amid moderate defensive paces and no major injuries impacting key scorers.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Wisconsin — UCLA holds the mathematical edge with superior form and sharp backing.

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