Wright State vs Eastern Michigan

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-22 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-22 09:25 AM EST

Wright State vs Eastern Michigan on 2025-12-22

💰 Best Bet #1 Wright State / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 65% / Wright State shows strong home efficiency (105.2 AdjO per KenPom) against Eastern Michigan’s weak defense (98.4 AdjD), with recent form supporting a comfortable cover despite minor line movement favoring the home side.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 60% / Both teams play at a moderate tempo (68 possessions for Wright State, 70 for Eastern Michigan), with defensive rebounding rates limiting second-chance points; injuries to key scorers reduce scoring potential below the line.

💰 Best Bet #3 Wright State / Moneyline / -280 / 70% / Home advantage and superior overall efficiency (SP+ rating 25 spots higher) give Wright State a clear edge, aligning with simulation win probability and current season splits.

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Wright State 70% / Eastern Michigan 30%

💰 Money Distribution
Wright State 60% / Eastern Michigan 40%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -5.5 for Wright State and moved to -6.5 with moderate public action on the favorite, indicating steady support without sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Wright State spread, driven by home efficiency metrics and Eastern Michigan’s road struggles (2-4 away ATS this season); total under holds +2% EV based on pace and defensive trends.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Wright State | 74% |
| Win % for Eastern Michigan | 26% |
| Spread Cover % for Wright State | 62% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 138.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [+2.1, +10.3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Tanner Holden / Over 18.5 Points / -110 / 75% / Holden averages 19.2 PPG in home games this season with high usage (28%) against Eastern Michigan’s porous perimeter defense (35% opponent 3P allowed), supported by Wright State’s efficient half-court offense.

Player Prop #2: Alex Huibregtse / Over 7.5 Rebounds / -115 / 70% / Huibregtse pulls down 8.1 RPG overall, thriving on offensive boards (25% rate) versus Eastern Michigan’s weak defensive rebounding (68% allowed), with no key frontcourt injuries impacting his minutes.

Player Prop #3: Tyson Hunter / Under 14.5 Points / -105 / 68% / Hunter’s scoring dips to 12.3 PPG on the road against top-150 defenses like Wright State’s (havoc rate 18%), limited by Eastern Michigan’s low-possession style and recent form showing unders in 4 of 6 away games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Wright State, aligning with money distribution and mathematical edges from efficiency ratings, suggesting a follow rather than fade in this home-favored spot. Eastern Michigan’s travel fatigue and injury concerns (questionable status for two rotation players) further tilt the matchup without creating contrarian value. Overall game scoring projects low due to both teams’ mid-tempo play and solid defensive rebounding, favoring the under.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Wright State — superior home metrics and simulation outcomes provide the best probability of success.

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