Xavier vs Creighton

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-17 06:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-17 10:46 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Xavier / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 55% / Xavier’s strong home performance and defensive efficiency against Creighton’s offense provide a clear edge in covering the narrow spread.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 149.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ recent games show high-scoring trends with efficient shooting, pushing the total above the line based on pace and rebounding rates.
💰 Best Bet #3 Xavier / Moneyline / -110 / 58% / Home-court advantage combined with better adjusted efficiency ratings favors Xavier in a matchup where Creighton struggles on the road.

Xavier vs Creighton on 2025-12-17

Game Times

ET: 6:30 PM
CT: 5:30 PM
MT: 4:30 PM
PT: 3:30 PM
AKT: 2:30 PM
HST: 12:30 PM

Public Bets

Xavier 65% / Creighton 35%

Money Distribution

Xavier 70% / Creighton 30%

Market Alignment

Aligned

Line Movement

Line opened at Xavier -1.5 and moved to -2.5, indicating sharp action on the favorite despite public support.

Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% on Xavier spread, driven by reverse line movement and positive home splits outweighing public percentage.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Xavier | 58% |
| Win % for Creighton | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Xavier | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51% / Under: 49% |
| Average Total Points | 152 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-6, +10] |

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Xavier, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by line movement toward the favorite, making following the public optimal in this case. Creighton’s road struggles and Xavier’s rebounding advantage support the projection without a need to fade. The game outlook points to a moderately high-scoring affair, with both offenses capable of exploiting defensive weaknesses in transition.

Recommended Play

Follow the public with Xavier — the convergence of metrics and market data confirms the highest probability of success.

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