Youngstown State vs Chicago State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-28 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-28 04:07 PM EST

🏀 Youngstown State vs Chicago State on 2025-11-28

💰 Best Bet #1 [Youngstown State / Spread / -14 at -110 / 68% / Youngstown State’s superior recent form and Chicago State’s 23-game non-con losing streak create a strong edge, bolstered by home advantage at Beeghly Center.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 146.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit moderate offensive efficiencies in early season games, with Youngstown averaging 78 points and Chicago allowing 82, suggesting a slight lean over despite defensive adjustments.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Youngstown State / Moneyline / -900 / 92% / Chicago State’s dismal 8.5% implied win probability from market odds aligns with their poor metrics, making Youngstown a heavy favorite with minimal upset risk.]

Game Times

ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

[82% Youngstown State / 18% Chicago State]

💰 Money Distribution

[65% Youngstown State / 35% Chicago State]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

[Spread opened at -12.5 and moved to -14 with balanced action; total steady at 146.5 despite minor sharp interest on over.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+4.2% on Youngstown State spread; implied probability undervalues their 68% cover rate from simulation and form disparity, with no significant RLM to contradict.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Youngstown State | 91.5% |
| Win % for Chicago State | 8.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Youngstown State | 68% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 147.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [8, 22] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Youngstown State, aligning with sharp money distribution and mathematical projections from their dominant early-season metrics against Chicago State’s defensive lapses. Following the public is optimal here, as no contrarian signals like RLM or injury edges emerge to justify fading. The game outlook points to moderate scoring, with Youngstown’s efficient offense likely pushing the total slightly over but not explosively so.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Youngstown State] — their projected 91.5% win probability and positive EV on the spread make it the clear mathematical choice.

Highlights unavailable.