MLB

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers

League: MLB | Game Time: 7:05 PM ET • 6:05 PM CT • 5:05 PM MT • 4:05 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-06-30 05:07 PM EDT

💰 Best Bet #1 New York Yankees / -1.5 / -1.5 at +162 / 57% / Yankees receive plus-money on the run line despite heavy public money on them; injuries to both sides create variance that favors the home side covering at this number.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 7.5 / 7.5 at -124 / 61% / Both clubs average under 3 runs per game in recent form with multiple high-impact arms and bats sidelined; public leans under and pitching staff limitations support the low total.
💰 Best Bet #3 New York Yankees / Moneyline / -118 / 55% / Yankees hold home-field edge and slight market consensus despite roster injuries; Tigers bullpen and lineup absences create enough downside to keep the slight favorite as the highest-EV side.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Yankees | 53% |
| Win % for Detroit Tigers | 47% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Yankees | 51% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42% / Under: 58% |
| Average Total Runs | 7.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3, 4] |

💸 Public Bets
Yankees 62% / Tigers 38%
💰 Money Distribution
Yankees 66% / Tigers 34%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Yankees -1.5 opened near even and settled at +162 on the run line with steady money on the favorite.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Yankees -1.5 at +162 carries +3% edge; Under 7.5 carries +4% edge based on current offensive output and injury-adjusted run environments.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Riley Greene Over 0.5 hits at -110 / 62% — Greene maintains strong contact rate against right-handed pitching even with lineup injuries around him.
Player Prop #2: Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 RBI at +105 / 58% — Torkelson sees elevated RBI opportunities in a Tigers lineup thinned by multiple absences.
Player Prop #3: Marcus Stroman Under 5.5 strikeouts at -115 / 59% — Stroman’s recent innings have trended lower in strikeouts amid Yankees’ overall offensive struggles.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align on the Yankees side while the market prices the run line with plus-money value. Injury lists on both clubs suppress scoring and support the Under. The data favors following the consensus on the Yankees moneyline and run line while taking the Under.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New York Yankees.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis

Strongest Bet
– Riley Greene Over 0.5 hits (-110) — Greene maintains a highly consistent contact rate against right-handed pitching despite injuries thinning the Tigers’ lineup