MLB

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers

League: MLB | Game Time: 7:05 PM ET • 6:05 PM CT • 5:05 PM MT • 4:05 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-06-28 05:19 PM EDT

💰 Best Bet #1 New York Yankees / -1.5 / -1.5 at +164 / 58% / Yankees hold home edge and recent series results against Detroit despite key absences; market line offers plus odds on the spread.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 8 / 8 at -110 / 61% / Both clubs posting low run totals in recent outings with multiple high-impact arms sidelined, suppressing offensive output.
💰 Best Bet #3 Detroit Tigers / Moneyline / +120 / 54% / Heavy Yankees injury list and sub-3.0 runs-per-game average over last 10 creates measurable value on the underdog moneyline.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Yankees | 54% |
| Win % for Detroit Tigers | 46% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Yankees | 51% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47% / Under: 53% |
| Average Total Runs | 7.6 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3, +4] |

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🏈 Matchup: New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers on 2026-06-29
💸 Public Bets
Yankees 63% / Tigers 37%
💰 Money Distribution
Yankees 67% / Tigers 33%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Yankees moneyline held steady near -140 with consistent public and money support on the favorite.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Tigers moneyline carries +4% EV; Under 8 carries +3% EV based on suppressed scoring environment.

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Top 3 Player Props – New York Yankees
– Anthony Rizzo Over 0.5 Hits at -120 / 62% / Strong contact rate in limited recent action against right-handed pitching despite overall team offensive dip.
– Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 Total Bases at -105 / 59% / Historical power output in home matchups versus Detroit pitching staffs.
– DJ LeMahieu Over 0.5 Runs at +110 / 57% / High on-base frequency and lineup position in low-total projections.

Top 3 Player Props – Detroit Tigers
– Riley Greene Over 1.5 Total Bases at -115 / 61% / Elevated slugging splits in away games against AL East opponents.
– Kerry Carpenter Over 0.5 Hits at -130 / 58% / Consistent contact metrics versus New York pitching in current season samples.
– Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 RBI at +105 / 56% / Runners-on-base opportunities in projected low-scoring contest.

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⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align on the Yankees side, but heavy injury attrition and recent low-output results create measurable value on the Tigers moneyline and Under total. Offense-defense data point to a run-suppressed environment.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Detroit Tigers moneyline.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis

Gemini recommends passing on this game (analysis was unclear)