MLB
New York Yankees vs 
Detroit Tigers
League: MLB | Game Time: 7:05 PM ET • 6:05 PM CT • 5:05 PM MT • 4:05 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-06-28 05:19 PM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 New York Yankees / -1.5 / -1.5 at +164 / 63% / Heavy public and money alignment on Yankees at 57-63% alongside +164 price on -1.5 creates positive EV edge despite injuries.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 8 / 8 at -110 / 58% / Yankees and Tigers recent form averaging under 8 runs combined with widespread pitching injuries points to suppressed scoring environment.
💰 Best Bet #3 New York Yankees / Moneyline / -142 / 65% / Strongest money distribution (67%) and market consensus favor Yankees despite roster absences; line holds positive EV versus implied probability.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Yankees | 62% |
| Win % for Detroit Tigers | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Yankees | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 44% / Under: 56% |
| Average Total Runs | 7.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +4] |
🏈 Matchup: New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers on 2026-06-29
💸 Public Bets
Yankees 63% / Tigers 37%
💰 Money Distribution
Yankees 67% / Tigers 33%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Yankees -1.5 held steady with 62% money support on the spread.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Yankees ML carries +3% edge; Under 8 carries +2% edge.
Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: Gleyber Torres Under 1.5 total bases at -110 / 61% / Tigers offense suppressed by multiple key injuries limiting power production.
– Player Prop #2: Aaron Judge Under 1.5 total bases at -110 / 64% / Yankees star listed out reduces lineup power and forces lower run expectancy.
– Player Prop #3: Javier Báez Under 0.5 hits at -120 / 59% / Extensive Tigers injury list including Báez limits offensive output in this matchup.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public money and bets align strongly behind the Yankees across spread and moneyline. The data supports following that side on the spread at plus-money while the Under benefits from collective pitching and position-player injuries lowering run totals. No mathematical justification exists for fading the market.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New York Yankees.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Gemini recommends passing on this game (analysis was unclear)