MLB

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers

League: MLB | Game Time: 7:05 PM ET • 6:05 PM CT • 5:05 PM MT • 4:05 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-06-28 05:19 PM EDT

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets
💰 Best Bet #1 New York Yankees / -1.5 / -1.5 at 164 / 57% / Yankees hold home-field edge and recent series wins over Detroit despite multiple injuries; sharp money supports the run line.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 8 / 8 at -110 / 54% / Both lineups depleted by injuries and recent scoring suppressed in head-to-head matchups; pace and bullpen usage favor staying under the total.
💰 Best Bet #3 New York Yankees / Moneyline / -142 / 61% / Heaviest public and money alignment on Yankees combined with home status creates positive EV at the current price.

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🏈 Matchup: New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers on 2026-06-29
💸 Public Bets
Yankees 63% / Tigers 37%
💰 Money Distribution
Yankees 67% / Tigers 33%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Yankees moneyline and spread held steady with consistent sharp support on the favorite.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Yankees ML carries +3.8% EV; Under 8 carries +2.1% EV based on injury-adjusted scoring rates.

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Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Yankees | 61% |
| Win % for Detroit Tigers | 39% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Yankees | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46% / Under: 54% |
| Average Total Runs | 7.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, 5] |

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Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Gleyber Torres Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at -110 / 62% / Tigers offense limited by multiple absences and Yankees pitching depth.
Player Prop #2: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases at -115 / 59% / Even with injury tag, historical power output and matchup favor reaching the line when active.
Player Prop #3: Giancarlo Stanton Under 0.5 Home Runs at -130 / 61% / Reduced lineup protection and recent power outage trends support staying under.

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Top 3 Player Props – New York Yankees
Player Prop #1: Aaron Judge Under 2.5 Total Bases at -105 / 58% / Multiple key absences reduce protection and overall run environment.
Player Prop #2: Giancarlo Stanton Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at -120 / 60% / Recent form and opposing pitching limit production opportunities.
Player Prop #3: Clarke Schmidt Under 5.5 Strikeouts at -115 / 57% / Injury recovery and bullpen usage cap workload and strikeout upside.

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Top 3 Player Props – Detroit Tigers
Player Prop #1: Javier Báez Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at -110 / 63% / Extended injury absence and weak recent offensive metrics cap output.
Player Prop #2: Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 Home Runs at -130 / 59% / Power suppressed versus Yankees pitching staff.
Player Prop #3: Reese Olson Under 4.5 Earned Runs at -105 / 56% / High walk rates and injury-limited bullpen support the under.

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⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align strongly on the Yankees side while the total sits near even. Injury depletion on both sides suppresses scoring, supporting the Under. Reverse line movement is absent, so follow the market consensus on the Yankees.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New York Yankees -1.5 and Moneyline — best mathematical probability of winning.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis

Strongest Bet
– Gleyber Torres Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110) — A projected 62% win probability makes this