MLB
New York Yankees vs 
Detroit Tigers
League: MLB | Game Time: 1:35 PM ET • 12:35 PM CT • 11:35 AM MT • 10:35 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-06-28 05:30 PM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-192) / 58% / Yankees missing multiple impact hitters including Judge and Stanton per latest injury report, recent form shows NYY averaging just 2.5 runs per game over last 10.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 8 (-110) / 62% / Both teams trending low-scoring with combined averages under 7 runs per game in recent outings and multiple key offensive absences.
💰 Best Bet #3 Detroit Tigers ML (+120) / 56% / Positive EV on Tigers moneyline given NYY’s 3-7 recent record and heavy injury list against a Detroit side with strong pitching depth available.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Yankees | 47% |
| Win % for Detroit Tigers | 53% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Yankees | 44% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 41% / Under: 59% |
| Average Total Runs | 7.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3, 4] |
Matchup: New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers
💸 Public Bets
Yankees 64% / Tigers 36%
💰 Money Distribution
Yankees 68% / Tigers 32%
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
NYY moneyline held steady near -142 despite heavy public money, indicating limited sharp support.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Tigers ML carries +4% edge; Under 8 carries +5% edge after injury and form adjustments.
Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 strikeouts (-110) / 71% — Tigers ace faces depleted Yankees lineup missing Judge, Stanton and multiple regulars, boosting K-rate in recent starts.
– Player Prop #2: Riley Greene Over 1.5 total bases (-115) / 68% — Strong recent contact rates against right-handed pitching and favorable platoon matchup.
– Player Prop #3: Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 RBI (+105) / 64% — Elevated RBI opportunities with Yankees bullpen allowing extra-base damage in late innings.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public money heavily backs the Yankees but sharp indicators and injury data diverge sharply. Recent offensive struggles and multiple high-profile absences for New York create measurable edges on the Tigers side and the Under. Scoring outlook remains suppressed given current form and roster constraints for both clubs.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Detroit Tigers ML and Under 8.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Gemini recommends passing on this game (analysis was unclear)