Columbus Crew vs 
New York City FC
League: MLS | Game Time: 7:30 PM ET • 6:30 PM CT • 5:30 PM MT • 4:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-07-22 05:20 PM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 Columbus Crew SC / Spread / -0.5 at -118 / 57% / Home favoritism and slight reverse line movement on the spread support Columbus covering despite public lean toward NYC.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 2.5 at -110 / 56% / Public and sharp money both lean under 2.5 with 55-58% support; limited recent scoring data favors the lower total.
💰 Best Bet #3 Columbus Crew SC / Moneyline / -125 / 59% / Strongest market alignment on Columbus ML with 59% of money and home edge in the provided odds.
🏈 Matchup: Columbus Crew SC vs New York City FC on February 19, 2026
💸 Public Bets
Columbus Crew SC 54% / New York City FC 46%
💰 Money Distribution
Columbus Crew SC 59% / New York City FC 41%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Columbus Crew SC spread held at -0.5; moneyline stable near -125 despite 57% public spread bets on NYC +0.5.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.8% on Columbus ML; +2.1% on Under 2.5 based on money % convergence and home pricing.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Columbus Crew SC | 52% |
| Win % for New York City FC | 25% |
| Draw % | 23% |
| Spread Cover % for Columbus Crew SC | 51% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 44% / Under: 56% |
| Average Total Goals | 2.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.1, +1.8] |
Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: D. Gazdag Over 2.5 shots at +105 / 61% — Primary creator in Columbus attack with consistent volume in roster usage.
– Player Prop #2: M. Arfsten Over 1.5 tackles at -110 / 58% — Defensive midfielder role supports tackle totals against NYC midfield.
– Player Prop #3: J. Thiaré Over 0.5 shots on target at -125 / 60% — Forward listed on home roster projects finishing chances in home setup.
Top 3 Player Props – New York City FC
– Player Prop #1: Magno Talles Over 1.5 shots at -105 / 59% — Wing presence on away roster drives shot attempts.
– Player Prop #2: A. Ojeda Over 0.5 tackles at +110 / 57% — Midfield listing supports defensive action volume.
– Player Prop #3: Gustavo Raul Over 2.5 passes completed in final third at -115 / 55% — Central role on NYC roster projects distribution numbers.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public betting and money align on Columbus Crew SC across moneyline while diverging on spread toward NYC. The math supports following the home side on ML and Under total given 55-58% under money support and low projected scoring environment. No strong contrarian edge exists.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Columbus Crew SC moneyline.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Strongest Bet
– D. Gazdag Over 2.5 shots (+105) — Primary attacking creator for Columbus with consistent shot volume giving this prop a 6