New England Revolution vs 
Toronto FC
League: MLS | Game Time: 7:30 PM ET • 6:30 PM CT • 5:30 PM MT • 4:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-07-16 07:20 AM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 New England Revolution -0.5 at -142 / 61% / Home side shows 54% money share on spread and holds clear edge in expected goal creation versus Toronto’s leaky defense.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 2.5 at -143 / 58% / Public and sharp money both lean Under; limited recent scoring trends and low xG profiles support fewer than 2.5 goals.
💰 Best Bet #3 New England Revolution ML at -145 / 63% / Strongest moneyline alignment with 63% of money on home side and positive EV versus implied probability.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New England Revolution | 58% |
| Win % for Toronto FC | 23% |
| Draw % | 19% |
| Spread Cover % for New England Revolution | 53% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42% / Under: 58% |
| Average Total Goals | 2.41 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-0.8, 1.9] |
🏈 Matchup: New England Revolution vs Toronto FC on 2026-07-22
💸 Public Bets
New England Revolution 59% / Toronto FC 41%
💰 Money Distribution
New England Revolution 63% / Toronto FC 37%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Home moneyline held steady near -140 while public remained below 60% on New England, indicating sharp support for the favorite.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
New England Revolution ML carries +3.8% EV; Under 2.5 carries +2.9% EV based on money/percentage convergence and league scoring environment.
Top 3 Player Props – New England Revolution
– A. Yusuf Over 0.5 Shots on Target at -115 / 64% / Primary forward in home attack with consistent usage in final third against weak Toronto back line.
– M. Turner Over 2.5 Tackles at -130 / 61% / Defensive midfielder sees high volume in possession battles and benefits from Toronto’s high press.
– W. Sands Over 45.5 Passing Accuracy at -110 / 59% / Central defender distributes cleanly from build-up in home matches.
Top 3 Player Props – Toronto FC
– D. Mihailović Over 1.5 Shots at -120 / 62% / Creative attacker takes volume attempts even in low-possession games.
– D. Etienne Over 0.5 Shots on Target at +105 / 57% / Forward leads Toronto in box entries and finishing attempts.
– K. Franklin Over 2.5 Tackles at -125 / 60% / Full-back involved in defensive duels against New England wing play.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public betting and money percentages align on New England Revolution across spread and moneyline, supporting follow-the-money positioning with positive EV. Sharp support for the Under 2.5 is reinforced by typical MLS low-event profiles and Toronto’s defensive vulnerabilities. No major injury or rest factors alter the lean.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New England Revolution ML and Under 2.5.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Strongest Bet
– G. Yow Over 1.5 Tackles (+105) — Strong defensive metrics and consistent roster usage support a high probability of clearing this line at plus-money value.
– A. Yusuf Over 0.5 Shots on Target (-110) — High projected probability of 61% offers a significant edge against the -110 market price.
– Under 2.5 Goals (+100) — Both public and sharp money lean toward a low-scoring affair, backed by limited offensive data for both sides.